Tourism forecasting UE Past Papers Questions.

Write short notes on the following:

1. Time-based quantitative forecasting methods
2. Explanatory variable in demand forecasting (with help of a graph)
3. Subjective forecasting methods
4. Coefficient of correlation in forecasting
5. Difference between Simple Linear and Multiple regression analysis.

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UNSOLVED

In January 2012 , arrivals in Morogoro were 20 tourists and they are expected to rise by a fixed number of 10 tourists a month up to June 2012. Using linear regression analysis, estimate the arrival level for July 2012.

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UNSOLVED

What do you understand by the term ‘tourism demand forecasting’?

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UNSOLVED

Explain how the following factors can affect the future tourism demand:

1. Social changes
2. Environmental changes
3. Technological changes

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UNSOLVED

The following linear regression model was developed from a certain tour guiding company . Study the model to answer questions (i) and (ii).

, where

Y=effective annual demand for tourism

I=ammount of disposable income (say in US$)

P=price (US$) of tourism product

=Leisure time (hours) per year and

=Work time (hours) per year.

1. What implications can you drawn from this model?
2. Suppose in the above model, the number of tourists (Y) was initially 2,000,000 per year at a given price (P), leisure time () , work time () and the amount of  disposable income (I). What will be the new tourism demand if work time increases by 40 hours per year, other factors remain constant?

Answer / Solution

UNSOLVED